My solution that worked fine with numbers and sync time below:
I decided for option 2 in my original post, i.e. I deleted Joplin on the new iPhone after the quick start data transfer. Then I installed it again, disabled automatic screen lock, selected Dropbox sync and started an initial sync which lasted only 74 minutes, much less than I expected.
Here are the numbers for someone else to compare with his/her numbers on Joplin:
On the new iPhone the sync showed 13'799 items.
Sync status (synced items / total items):
Note: 2187/2187
Folder: 162/162
Resource: 2368/2368
Tag: 46/46
NoteTag: 564/564
Revision: 972/972
Total: 6299/6299
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